Oyo South Senatorial Race Tightens: 30-Day Survey Projects 60-40 Split Between Dhikirulah Olajide and Remi Oseni Across 9 LGAs
A fresh 30-day political survey conducted across the 9 Local Government Areas of Oyo South Senatorial District shows a closely watched 60 by 40 percent contest between two leading aspirants, Hon. Remi Oseni and Hon. Stanley Olajide.
The study, which ran through June 13 to July 12, was designed to measure more than name recognition. Researchers said the outcome will likely be decided by grassroots structure, voter turnout on election day, and how well each camp manages party cohesion ahead of primaries.
How the survey was done
Field teams moved across Ibarapa North, Ibarapa Central, Ibarapa East, Ido, Ibadan North West, Ibadan South West, Ibadan South East, Ibadan North and Ibadan North East.
In each LGA, interviews were held with ward chairmen, party executives, Baales, Mogajis, market leaders, artisans, youth groups, women leaders, civil society actors, and registered voters in urban and rural wards.
To score the candidates, 7 weighted tools were used:
1. Structure: presence of ward to LGA campaign teams and engagement with party executives
2. Media engagements: radio, TV, print, digital content, town halls and visibility
3. Mobilization style: grassroots outreach, empowerment programs, and consistency beyond election periods
4. Human management: relationship with party members, ability to manage conflict, and inclusion
5. Impact around party members: welfare support, recognition, and loyalty to the base
6. Public acceptability: perception among non-partisan voters, traditional rulers, and community groups
7. Influence in socio-political communities: alliances with market associations, professionals, religious bodies, and youth networks
Each LGA was scored separately before an aggregate for the entire district was produced.
LGA-by-LGA findings
Ibarapa Bloc: Ibarapa North, Central, East
This zone showed stronger alignment with Hon. Remi Oseni. Respondents cited regular visits to traditional rulers, attendance at farmers’ association meetings, and direct interface with ward executives. His town hall meetings and small-scale empowerment programs for women and artisans were frequently mentioned. Hon. Stanley Olajide has party presence here through state and federal structures, but respondents said his physical presence on the ground has been less frequent.
Ido LGA
Ido emerged as a key swing LGA. Both candidates have active party structures. Voters said they are undecided and waiting to see more direct community projects, youth engagement, and follow-through on promises. The demand for inclusion and regular stakeholder meetings was repeated across wards.
Ibadan South West
Hon. Stanley Olajide, Odidi Omo, maintains a strong advantage in this LGA through deep grassroots mobilization, active youth engagement, and a well-structured network of party loyalists across the federal constituency. His consistent presence and people-centered approach have kept him closely connected with communities.
Hon. Remi Oseni also enjoys goodwill in areas like Oke-Ado, Oke-Bola and Born Photo due to long-standing interactions with market leaders.
Overall, this LGA remains competitive, with Odidi Omo positioned slightly ahead due to broader youth support and stronger party structure at the grassroots.
Ibadan South East, Ibadan North, Ibadan North East
These three metropolitan LGAs tilted toward Hon. Stanley Olajide. Factors cited were incumbency, visibility of federal constituency projects, and active digital engagement. Youth groups and professional associations rated his responsiveness on social media and his participation in town halls highly. Party members also referenced support for constituency activities.
Ibadan North West
Another swing area. The survey found a split between party loyalists and performance-based voters. Respondents said media engagement, direct empowerment, and accessibility will determine where the LGA swings.
Key themes that came out
Structure versus visibility
Hon. Remi Oseni was rated stronger on physical structure across all 9 LGAs, with deeper penetration in Ibarapa and parts of Ibadan South West. Ward coordinators reported regular contact and meetings.
Hon. Stanley Olajide led in visibility and name recognition, especially in central Ibadan, driven by incumbency and consistent media presence.
Media and communication
On digital platforms including Facebook, X, and WhatsApp broadcasts, Hon. Stanley Olajide had higher engagement and reach among youth and professionals.
In traditional and community spaces, Hon. Remi Oseni dominated with radio appearances, community meetings, and direct engagement with Baales, Mogajis, and market associations.
Mobilization and concerns about "use and dump"
Across Ido, Ibadan North West and Ibarapa Central, a recurring feedback was the rejection of transactional politics. Voters and party members said they prefer sustained engagement, not engagement that stops after elections. Both camps were urged to deepen welfare programs and support for party members between cycles.
Human management and party relations
In Ibadan South West and the Ibarapa LGAs, party members praised Hon. Remi Oseni for inclusion and regular stakeholder meetings.
In Ibadan North and Ibadan South East, Hon. Stanley Olajide was credited for youth inclusion and support for party activities at the federal constituency level as his party Federal representatives will help to some extent.
Public acceptability
Non-partisan voters said they are watching antecedents, accessibility, and delivery. The survey found that delivery of constituency projects, responsiveness to community needs, and approachability weighed heavily in voter preference.
Socio-political influence
Hon. Remi Oseni showed strong ties with market associations, artisans, and traditional institutions.
Hon. Stanley Olajide showed strong ties with youth networks, professional bodies, student groups, and advocacy organizations.
What the 60-40 really means
Analysts stressed that the 60-40 is not a final prediction. It reflects current momentum based on structure, engagement, and acceptability within the 30-day window.
The 60 percent reflects the candidate with broader ward-level structure and deeper rural penetration across Ibarapa and parts of Ibadan South.
The 40 percent reflects the candidate with a stronger urban base, incumbency advantage, and media dominance in central Ibadan.
The gap can close quickly depending on three factors:
1. Consolidation: who unifies more party stakeholders and resolves internal grievances ahead of primaries
2. Turnout: which camp can mobilize voters in swing LGAs like Ido and Ibadan North West
3. Messaging: issue-based campaigns around security, agriculture, youth employment, infrastructure, and cost of living
Voices from the ground
A party chairman in Ibarapa East said: "Structure matters, but so does presence. People want to see you in the market, in the palace, in the ward, not just on radio."
A youth leader in Ibadan North noted: "We are watching who engages us beyond elections. Empowerment must be continuous, not once in four years."
A woman leader in Ibadan South West added: "We need candidates who remember us after the votes. Welfare and inclusion are key for us."
The survey recommends:
- Deepening ward-level structures in all 9 LGAs with regular meetings
- Sustained empowerment and welfare for party members, women, and youth
- Issue-based town halls focused on security, agriculture, jobs, and infrastructure
- Stronger engagement of first-time voters and non-partisan community groups
- Managing messaging to avoid division within the party
Oyo South remains a bellwether district. Whoever emerges will need to bridge the urban-rural divide and carry both Ibarapa and Ibadan along to win the general election.
Adegoke Àminat
Secretary, CEAIN, Community Engagement and Advocacy Initiative of Nigeria.
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